Sequential assimilation of crowdsourced social media data into a simplified flood inundation model

Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide. Severe floods can cause significant damage and sometimes loss of life. During a flood event, hydraulic models play an important role in forecasting and identifying potential inundated areas, where emergency responses should be deployed. Nevertheless, hydraulic models are not able to capture all of the processes in flood propagation because flood behaviour is highly dynamic and complex. Thus, there are always uncertainties associated with model simulations. As a result, near-real time observations are required to incorporate with hydraulic models to improve model forecasting skills. Crowdsourced (CS) social media data presents an opportunity for supporting urban flood management as it can provide insightful information collected by individuals in near real-time. In this thesis, approachesto maximise the impact of CS social media data (Twitter) to reduce uncertainty in flood inundation modelling (LISFLOOD-FP) through data assimilation were investigated. The developed methodologies were tested and evaluated using a real flooding case study of Phetchaburi city, Thailand. Firstly, two approaches (binary logistic regression and fuzzy logic) were developed based on Twitter metadata and spatiotemporal analysis to assess the quality of CS social media data. Both methods produced good results, but the binary logistic model was preferred as it involved less subjectivity. Next, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology was applied to estimate model uncertainty and identify behavioural parameter ranges. Particle swarm optimisation was also carried out to calibrate for an optimum model parameter set. Following this, an ensemble Kalman filter was applied to assimilate the flood depth information extracted from the CS data into the LISFLOOD-FP simulations using various updating strategies. The findings show that the global state update suffers from inconsistency of predicted water levels due to overestimating the impact of the CS data, whereas a topography based local state update provides encouraging results as the uncertainty in model forecasts narrows, albeit for a short time period. To extend the improvement time span, a combination of state and boundary updating was further investigated to correct both water levels and model inputs, and was found to produce longer lasting improvements in terms of uncertainty reduction. Overall, the results indicate the feasibility of applying CS social media data to reduce model uncertainty in flood forecasting